PeopleForBikes' latest Quarterly Risk and Opportunity Forecast for the U.S. bicycle industry, developed in collaboration with S&P Global, features major updates to better reflect the evolving market. Most notably, this edition marks the first time direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales data is integrated into the report's econometric forecasting model, enhancing its accuracy and providing deeper insights into future demand through 2029.
Previously, the forecast relied solely on monthly retail sell-through data from Circana. With PeopleForBikes' new reporting on DTC sales, unveiled at the 2025 Bicycle Leadership Conference, an additional 850,000 units sold directly to consumers in 2024 are now part of the picture, significantly shifting the model's projections.
"The updated Risk and Opportunity Forecast offers a more comprehensive, data-driven resource to help industry leaders plan with confidence in an increasingly dynamic market," said PeopleForBikes Senior Research Manager Liam Donoghue. "More updates to our data tools will be coming in the next quarter to continue assisting our Coalition members in making the best decisions for their business."
Key Impacts of the Updated Report:
- Revised E-Bike Market Forecast: E-bike projections saw the most significant change. Earlier forecasts projected annual growth exceeding 20%, but with DTC data now showing that nearly 50% of 2024 e-bike sales occurred through direct channels, the revised forecast brings 2026 e-bike unit growth down to 11%. The model also phased out previously used European data, acknowledging the growing divergence between U.S. and European e-bike markets.
- Category Restructuring – BMX + Children's: A correlation analysis prompted a reclassification of bike segments, combining children's and BMX bikes into one category due to strong statistical ties in purchasing behavior. BMX bikes were previously grouped under the "Other" category of bicycles. This change leads to a decrease in "Other" (adult, non-electric) bike sales, which are now projected to decline to fewer than 2 million units by 2030, an average annual drop of more than 11%.
- Expanded Risk Index for Global Supply Chains: In addition to demand modeling, the report also includes country-specific supply chain risk scores, developed by a team of 45 S&P Global analysts. Covering China, Taiwan, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, the assessments include metrics for political stability, cargo disruption, and other key risk factors rated on a scale of 0–10. While these insights are not currently integrated into demand projections, they provide valuable context for manufacturing and logistics planning.
The full Q1 2025 report is available exclusively to PeopleForBikes Coalition members via the PeopleForBikes Member Center. To become a member, visit membership.peopleforbikes.org or reach out to PeopleForBikes Director of Membership and Industry Engagement Rod Judd at rod@peopleforbikes.org.
About PeopleForBikes
PeopleForBikes is a national bicycling foundation and the U.S. bicycle industry's trade association representing more than 340 bicycle industry supplier members and nearly 1.4 million individuals. Through our three areas of influence — infrastructure, policy, and participation — we accelerate the construction of safe, fun, and connected places to bike; advance pro-bike and pro-bike-business legislation; and welcome more people to the joys of riding a bike. Our goal: Become the best place to ride a bike in the world. Join us at PeopleForBikes.org.
